Edited by Nayef R.F. Al-Rodhan
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BALANCING TRANSNATIONAL RESPONSIBILITIES AND
BURDEN-SHARING WITH SOVEREIGNTY AND HUMAN
DIGNITY
NAYEF R.F. AL-RODHAN
Dr. Nayef R.F. Al-Rodhan is Senior Scholar in Geostrategy and the Director of the Programme on the Geopolitical Implications of Globalisation and Transnational Security at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Geneva, Switzerland.
1. Background
In June 2008, 12 distinguished experts were invited to address a conference on potential global strategic catastrophes on both the general theoretical foundations of studying catastrophes and an assessment of their likelihood in particular domains. We chose our title carefully and deliberately: potential, because these are rare events, although unfortunately some may still occur; global, because these threats are often global in their causes and consequences; strategic, because they present multiple strategic dilemmas for states and the international system in balancing the principle of sovereignty with human rights and the need for urgent collective delivery of help and expertise to regions that may be geopolitically uncertain; and catastrophes, because these threats have major cascading impacts on our planet and our way of life in all of its dimensions – psychologically, socially, culturally, economically, politically and environmentally.
The potential catastrophes addressed in this book do not include more remote and less immediate events, such as existential cosmic events like comets, asteroids, cosmic rays, solar flares, supernova and gamma-ray bursts; or potential future technological aberrations or possibilities, such as challenges from robotic entities, evolutionary patterns or major collapses of the global system. These potentially catastrophic occurrences require us to adopt a much longer timeframe than we are accustomed to doing. Yet, it is worth briefly considering this type of potential catastrophe.
2. The Big Picture and Existential Risks
(a) Evolutionary Changes
Species extinction is not a rare phenomenon in the history of the Earth. It is estimated that about 99.9% of all the life forms that have inhabited the planet have become extinct. Some of these extinctions have occurred due to competition while others have occurred due to natural events. An important example within Hominids of extinction due to possible competition may have been the extinction of our nearest competitor, Homo Neanderthalensis, nearly 30,000 years ago – probably at the hands of our own Homo Sapiens. Another hominid extinction is believed to have occurred in the case of Homo Floresiensis, some 12,000 years ago.
Evolutionary changes are frequently attributed to factors such as mutations, balance selection, genetic recombination, genetic drift and gene flow between populations. While these changes usually occur slowly in the absence of environmental influences, they can be accelerated in unpredictable ways as a result of extreme and sudden environmental changes, such as, for example, the impact of the 10-km wide asteroid that hit the Yucatan peninsula some 65 million years ago, resulting in mass extinctions.
(b) Super-volcanic Eruptions
Super-volcanic eruptions can result in catastrophic consequences not only because of their massive physical destructive power, but also because of the release of sulphur-rich gases, the resulting formation of sulphuric acid aerosols in the stratosphere and their impact on the climate. Supervolcanos can also produce volcanic winters due to massive emissions of soot in a scenario that is similar to that of a nuclear winter. Severe cooling usually results from volcanic ash clouds as well as volatile sulphur injections into the stratosphere. These can have far-reaching existential consequences not only for the environ-ment, but also for human populations and the future of human civilisation.